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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."